Avalanche Bulletin - Jasper National Park - Thu Mar 23, 2017

Issued: Wed Mar 22, 2017 17:00
Valid Until: Thu Mar 23, 2017 17:00

We are in a low probability high consequence situation. The natural cycle has subsided yet any slope that did not run should be treated with utmost caution. Now is not to time to venture into big terrain. Sun can increase the danger quickly. [GL]

Public Avalanche Forecast
Danger Ratings: Thursday alpine treeline below treeline
alpine: 3 - Considerable
3 - Considerable
  • Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.
  • Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.
  • Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.
treeline: 3 - Considerable
3 - Considerable
  • Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.
  • Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.
  • Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.
below treeline: 2 - Moderate
2 - Moderate
  • Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.
  • Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.
  • Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.
Forecast
Forecast Friday Saturday
alpine View Alpine Danger Rating Trend 3 - Considerable 3 - Considerable
treeline View Treeline Danger Rating Trend 2 - Moderate 2 - Moderate
below treeline View Below Treeline Danger Rating Trend 1 - Low 1 - Low
Confidence: Low - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain
High The forecast is based on high-quality information and the nature of the issue makes it possible to render a solid judgement. A 'high confidence' rating does not imply fact or complete certainty however, and such judgements still carry the risk of being wrong.
Moderate The information used to produce the forecast is credibly sourced and plausible, but it is not of adequate quality or sufficiently corroborated to warrant a higher level of confidence.
Low The credibility or plausibility of the information used to produce the forecast is questionable, or the information is too fragmented or poorly corroborated to make solid judgements, or there are significant concerns regarding problems with the sources.
Past 24 hour weather
Station Maximum (°C) Minimum (°C) Snowfall (cm) Snow Pack (cm) Wind speed Ridgetop wind direction
Marmot Basin 0800 1 -8 1 156 Light (1-25 km/h) E
Columbia Icefields area 6 -5 0 152 Light (1-25 km/h) S
Low
  • Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.
  • Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.
  • Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.
Moderate
  • Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.
  • Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.
  • Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.
Considerable
  • Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.
  • Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.
  • Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.
High
  • Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.
  • Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.
  • Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.
Extreme
  • Avoid all avalanche terrain.
  • Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
  • Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

Problem 1: Wind Slabs

Which Elevation?
Which Elevation? alpine, treeline
Which Slopes?
Which Slopes? north, northwest, southeast, east, northeast, south, southwest, west
Chance of Avalanches?
Chance of Avalanches? possible - likely
Expected Size?
Expected Size? small - large

60cm of storm snow over the past week has formed a dangerous and unpredictable windslab. Crowns up to 2m deep and a km long have been seen. Several of these stepped to ground and ran into the valley.

Travel and Terrain Advice

  • Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.
  • Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline. Storm snow is forming touchy slabs.

Problem 2: Cornices

Which Elevation?
Which Elevation? alpine, treeline
Which Slopes?
Which Slopes? northwest, north, northeast, east
Chance of Avalanches?
Chance of Avalanches? possible - likely
Expected Size?
Expected Size? small - large

Large cornices on lee features with some visibly detached. Those that may release would likely trigger a large avalanche. Give them a wide berth.

Travel and Terrain Advice

  • Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices which could easily trigger the deep persistent slab.

Problem 3: Deep Persistent Slabs

Which Elevation?
Which Elevation? alpine, treeline, below treeline
Which Slopes?
Which Slopes? south, northeast, north, northwest, west, southwest, southeast, east
Chance of Avalanches?
Chance of Avalanches? possible - likely
Expected Size?
Expected Size? large - very large

The widespread observations and explosive work creating large and deep avalanches indicates that many went on this deep layer particularly where the snowpack is shallow and in rocky start zones. Involvement in one would be fatal consequences.

Travel and Terrain Advice

  • Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.
  • Be careful with low angle slopes that may not normally be a concern.
Problem Glossary
Loose Dry
  • Are usually small, but may gain significant mass on long steep slopes.
  • Are typically limited to steep terrain (40+ degrees).
  • Stabilize soon after a storm, usually within a few days.
Loose dry avalanches are best managed by:
  • Avoiding terrain traps and large steep slopes until the surface has stabilized.
  • On large steep slopes, occasionally move across the fall line to avoid being caught by your own sluffs from above.
Loose Wet
  • Are more powerful than loose dry avalanches due to their higher density.
  • Are often limited to sunny slope aspects.
  • Are commonly confined to the warmest part of the day.
Loose wet avalanches are best managed by:
  • Avoiding start zones and avalanche paths when the snow becomes moist from daytime heating, from rain, or does not freeze overnight.
Wind Slabs
  • Vary in size from small to medium.
  • Occur on steeper lee and cross-loaded portions of slopes (typically 35+ degrees).
  • Are often limited to specific terrain features such as lee ridge-tops.
  • Can often be recognized by the appearance of the snow surface, changes in surface snow hardness, hollow, drum-like sounds and/or shooting cracks.
  • Winds that vary in strength and direction can produce complex and unexpected wind slab patterns.
  • Stabilize fairly soon, usually in a few days to a week.
Wind slabs are best managed by:
  • Recognizing and avoiding areas where wind slabs have formed, until they have stabilized.
Storm Slabs
  • Vary in size from small to very large.
  • May be soft slabs, fooling people into underestimating slab potential.
  • Tend to occur on moderately steep slopes (35+ degrees).
  • May occur in all terrain, but are larger and more frequent in the alpine.
  • Stabilize soon after a storm, usually within a few days.
Storm slabs are best managed by:
  • Conservative terrain choices during and after storms until the storm snow has stabilized.
Wet Slabs
  • Involve wet layers in the snowpack, typically including deeper layers.
  • Tend to be large.
  • Occur when water forms or penetrates below the surface of the snowpack.
Wet slabs are best managed by: 
  • Avoiding start zones and avalanche paths when the snow becomes wet from daytime heating, rain, or lack of an overnight freeze.
Persistent Slabs
  • Slide on buried persistent weak layers, which often form during clear periods and may involve deeper layers from multiple storms.
  • Vary in size from medium to very large and may cross terrain barriers to involve multiple slide paths.
  • May occur on very gentle terrain, even slopes of 20 degrees or less.
  • May be localized to specific elevations, aspects, or regions.
  • There are often no visible signs of persistent slab instability.
  • Lack of avalanche activity and lack of danger signs are NOTreliable indicators of stability.
  • Compression tests and Rutschblock tests may locate persistent weak layers.
  • Stabilize slowly, tending to persist for several weeks or longer.
  • Often have dormant periods, becoming active again when the weather changes.
  • Are prone to lingering pockets of instability that persist long after most areas have stabilized.
  • Tend to release above the trigger, making it difficult to escape.
  • Are often triggered remotely from a long distance away.
Persistent slabs are best managed by:
  • Very conservative terrain choices.
  • Allow extra time for persistent slabs to stabilize and use a very cautious approach to new terrain. Be especially cautious after storms or during warming periods.
Deep Persistent Slabs
  • Slide on deeply buried persistent weak layers, which often form during clear periods or rain-on-snow events early in the season.
  • Involve thick, hard slabs, sometimes the entire snowpack.
  • Tend to be very large, commonly cross terrain barriers to involve multiple slide paths.
  • Tend to occur on larger slopes of moderate steepness, typically 30-40 degrees.
  • May be localized to specific elevations, aspects, or regions.
  • There are often no visible signs of persistent deep slab instability.
  • Lack of avalanche activity and lack of danger signs are NOT reliable indicators of stability.
  • Stabilize slowly if at all, persisting for months and often the entire season.
  • Dormant persistent deep slab instabilities often become active again when the weather changes, especially after storms or with warm spring weather.
  • Tend to release above the trigger, making it difficult to escape.
  • Are often triggered remotely from a long distance away.

Deep persistent slabs are best managed by:

  • Very conservative terrain choices and a very cautious approach to new terrain.
  • Be especially cautious after storms or during warming periods.
Cornices
  • May trigger large slab avalanches on relatively stable slopes below.
  • Are often associated with recent wind loading and/or temperature changes.
  • Can be triggered from ridges, sometimes breaking surprisingly far back onto ridge tops.

Cornices are best managed by:

  • Approaching corniced ridges cautiously.
  • Avoid travelling on or near overhanging cornices and limit time spent exposed to slopes below cornices, especially soon after wind events and during periods of warming temperatures.
Forecast Details

Weather Forecast

Thursday will be -3 to -6, light to moderate SW winds, clouds with some sun, and flurries. Friday will be much the same except for maybe more sun than cloud in the afternoon and -6 to -12 temperatures. Expect afternoon warming if sun comes out.

Snowpack Discussion

Wind slabs up to 1.5m deep found at and above treeline. Large cornices are present. The mid-pack has several crusts and persistent instabilities of facets and surface hoar. Closer to the ground is a weak base around the November rain crust and depth hoar. Time is required for the snowpack to strengthen after Saturday's storm loading.

Avalanche Activity Discussion

No patrol Wednesday. Saturday and Sunday was a widespread cycle with crowns a kilometer long and 2m deep. Some were size 3.5 and ran full path stepping to basal layers near the ground. Less activity at treeline with size 2-2.5. Monday's control produced numerous size 3 avalanches from the alpine.

For More Details

Emergency: 1 (877) 852-3100
Forecasters: (780) 852-6155

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